Friday, 23 June, 2017

China's GDP Growth: Slow and Slower?

U.S. flag is tweaked ahead of a news conference between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing China's GDP Growth: Slow and Slower?
Julia Daniel | 21 January, 2017, 00:48

China's economy grew a slightly more than expected 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter, supported by higher government spending and record bank lending. China's economy expanded 6.7 percent in 2016, meeting expectations, official data showed on Friday. Among them, China's fixed-asset investment, a key gauge of construction activity, went up 8.1% in 2016 from the year before, the slowest full-year expansion since 1999.

Those restrictions are likely to be kept throughout 2017, while Beijing looks to develop a long-term mechanism to stem speculation, a government think tank was reported as saying in December.

"The governor of Liaoning province, the only area in China in a recession, now says three years of recent economic figures were inflated - a rare official confession of data fabrication that has always been suspected and criticised", the Caixin magazine reported.

China's coal production fell 9.4 per cent for the full year, compared to 2015.

Lately, China's economy has experienced a screaming rise to almost hit the official rate.

Credit growth remains robust with shadow banking making a comeback, fuelling concerns deleveraging isn't happening despite official pledges.

"This is the third consecutive year of modest growth at constant exchange rates, and it represents a new normal in which luxury companies no longer benefit from a favorable market and free-spending consumers", Bain said in the report.

That temporary upturn is unlikely to last, economists said.

However, it said that industrial output growth slowed for the year, down to 6 per cent from 6.1 percent in 2015. Capital Economics' proxy estimate of GDP growth rose to 6.4% in the past quarter, and other economists have concluded that the Chinese economy has been booming of late.

The good news is the rebalancing is progressing nicely - in fact consumption continues to account for nearly two thirds of growth in 2016. But, this might not raise the interest rates despite an expected pick-up in inflation.

The housing market slowdown follows government-mandated property curbs in an attempt to control the red-hot real estate market toward the end of past year.

Growth in property investment quickened significantly in December to 11.1 percent, from an increase of 5.7 percent in the previous month, according to Reuters calculations, even as house prices showed signs of further cooling in some major cities.

The corporate debt of the country has climbed to 169 percent of GDP with the worldwide institutions repeatedly urging Beijing to act quickly in order to tackle the problem to avoid a financial crisis.


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