Sunday, 25 June, 2017

Oil Market Rebalancing At 'Slower Pace

Reuters Reuters
Julia Daniel | 15 June, 2017, 02:17

The oil producing group's May report mentioned that the global oil supply increased by 0.13 million barrels per day, mb/d, in May to average 95.74 mb/d.

As a result, OPEC raised the expected demand for its crude this year by 100,000 bbl/d to 32.02 million bbl/d.

"The numbers cast serious, serious doubt on whether there will be another hike this year", said Greg Anderson, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets in NY.

OPEC stated, "The rebalancing of the market is under way, but at a slower pace, given the changes in fundamentals since December, especially the shift in USA supply from an expected contraction to positive growth".

Looking at anticipated growth in global oil demand this year, OPEC reiterated its forecast of 1.27 million barrels per day (bpd).

Brent crude futures for August settlement fell by 0.86 percent to $48.30 per barrel, meanwhile U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for July delivery dropped by 1.01 percent to $45.99 per barrel. Iraq also passed Saudi Arabia as the number one supplier to India, the fastest growing oil consumer.

The IEA forecast that non-Opec output will rise this year by 660,000 bpd compared with last year's decline of 845,000 bpd, and then accelerate next year by 1.5 million bpd, led by the U.S. and with gains from Brazil and Canada offsetting declines in the United Kingdom, Kazakhstan, Ghana, Congo, Mexico and China.

"The rebalancing of the market is underway, but at a slower pace, given the changes in fundamentals since December, especially the shift in USA supply from an expected contraction to positive growth", OPEC said in the report.

"Crude oil is still struggling to rebound", said Olivier Jakob, strategist at Petromatrix, adding that Opec's gradual approach to rebalancing was giving USA producers time to drill new wells that were undermining the impact of the group's cuts.

Low oil price will lead to rippling effect in the global market.

Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday after OPEC detailed supply cuts around the world, but the cartel also said overall production rose in May, and crude stayed well below $50 a barrel despite the modest recovery. Bloomberg reported that as OPEC met, the group's total production was climbing at a rapid pace, as political crises in Libya and Nigeria finally eased and output came back on line.

The IEA has revised its forecast upwards for U.S. oil production this year, and said Brazil and Canada were also expected "to make further gains".

It seems that oil inventories are particularly unpredictable as of late, with last week, the API and EIA reporting remarkably disparate figures in the amount of crude oil inventory movement-a 7.9-million-barrel discrepancy between the two that fanned the flames of an already shaky market.

This reduction in exports is close to the 500,000 bpd output cut pledged by the Saudis in terms of the November agreement, which was extended last month to March 2018.

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