Sunday, 25 June, 2017

Tropical development possible in the Northwestern Caribbean

You need to see this powerful statement by Philando Castile's mother Sanders: 'Major reforms' needed for lethal force involving black Americans
Darrell Mcdonald | 19 June, 2017, 00:46

Therefore the rain chance is very low for the morning, but it jumps to about a 60 percent coverage later in the day into the evening.

If the system does develop, it eventually could have an impact on the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle, according to forecasters.

For the rest of the week, it looks like most of the area will be dry Wednesday before rain chances begin to increase by Thursday into the weekend. It is also pretty far south and in an unlikely area of development.

Once the system does form by Tuesday afternoon we should have a better idea of how the system will behave and where exactly it will want to go.

The GFS American Model has been more consistent in moving this system due north, which would give us more tropical moisture and perhaps localized flooding.

The system is expected to move into an area less conducive for strengthening in the next few days. Much of the extended forecast will depend on the eventual development and track of the disturbance over the Caribbean we've been telling you about.

The second area of interest sits about 1400 miles east southeast of the southern Windward islands with scattered showers and thunderstorms. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary. Right now it has a medium chance of development as it moves west toward northern South America and the eastern Caribbean Sea next week. If a tropical system does develop, the combination of wind shear, and relatively cool waters will most likely prevent the development of a strong tropical storm or hurricane. The lack of a developing El Nino is now expected to increase activity.

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